Prediction Markets for Google
March 16, 2010
It was great that the Google team developed the GPM program to test their theory that collective intelligence as a group yields more accurate predictions than invidualistic intelligence. These were interesting results. At the same the time the team discovered other factors that drove people to bid/trade, such as non-cash rewards (reputational prizes), easy-to-use, fun markets and etc. I think it would be good as Gowgill said to ask the company to stop using short-term planning/forecasting technique and to use GPM, but I would do a parallel test for at least six months to test the program.
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April 26, 2010 at 4:19 pm
I agree that the GMP program is a very interesting concept but I wonder what kind of applicability it can really have in the corporate world. I can see how the socialization aspect could work (i.e. getting people involved in guessing upcoming national and international event outcomes) but I don’t really see a strong value to corporate companies.
April 27, 2010 at 4:58 pm
I agree that that system should be tested. However, I do see some value here. I really like the “itoldyouso” app at work. I usually hate things like this but I think the idea of this type of system is appealing.